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Two important dates

Normally, I would not post this as we should all be adults and know how to use a forex calendar and read the news. However, a rash of posts both here and abroad on the net that essentially are asking how to get megapips off of the Brexit vote have me concerned, so here we are. Also, people seem to be overlooking the big elephant in the room, the June FOMC.
Short version:
WED JUNE 15 1400 EST FOMC STATEMENT Whether you like it or not, the USD touches everything you do, like those bad decisions you made in University.
THURSDAY JUNE 23 UK BREXIT VOTE This really could be underwhelming.... or it could be horrific.
If you are a n00b, stop trying to get rich off of the Brexit vote. You need to concentrate on successful, positive trades, not big wins. Go gamble if you want that rush. The Brexit vote is one of those events that can cause such precipitous damage to accounts that Brokers are limiting retail leverage and raising margin rates: (from Oanda)
Dear Huachi
During events such as the upcoming Brexit referendum, market movements can be significant leading to the potential for large profits, but also large losses. To help ensure our customers are more insulated from such movements, we will be temporarily lowering the maximum leverage available on GBP pairs to 20:1 after the market close on June 17, 2016. The affected pairs will return to prior leverage levels after the market close on June 24, 2016.
As a result of this change, you may need to close trades or add funds to your account or risk a possible margin closeout if you currently have an open GBP positions with higher levels of leverage and do not have enough funds in your account to cover the increased margin requirements. To determine the impact this change may have to your margin, you can use OANDA’s margin calculator.
Margin rates on pairs not containing GBP will not be affected.
If you have any questions, you can contact our Client Experience Team whenever markets are open.
Regards, The OANDA Team
And FOMC? The June FOMC is not just any FOMC, it will really be a bellwether for 2016 for the Fed's direction with interest rates until election and Christmas. Will they stick to their word and raise rates? Or change course and have a flat rate, showing their weak hand? There are estimates in both directions (some showing preciptious cliffs, some showing seismic movements back and forth), but again, unless you are confident in your analysis, market intel, and skill set, pay attention because the June FOMC has a potential for a radical whipsaw.
I'll take this down in a few days, it is not a soapbox, but there is some real shit in the market right now that has capacity to wipe out accounts. Noobs watch out, you pros too!
~Huachi
submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex

Deflation Debate Heats Up in Bond Market Ahead of Fed Meeting

Bond investors are starting to debate whether the U.S. is heading into a deflationary spiral, even after trillions of dollars of stimulus to offset the pandemic-driven hit to growth.
This year’s collapse in oil prices and the drumbeat of staggeringly weak economic data are putting the question front and center as the Federal Reserve meets this week. The central bank is expected to sit tight for now and assess the programs it’s rolled out in the past month to calm markets, while reiterating a commitment to do more as needed.
But with market-based gauges showing investors see inflation stuck at best around half of the Fed’s target for the next decade, the risk of falling prices is creeping into money managers’ calculus. For Fred Marki at Western Asset Management Co., it comes down to the pace of economic recovery and the availability of testing and medical advances. Although the firm anticipates activity will start to revive, for now it favors areas it sees as having factored in the risk of falling prices and earnings, including investment-grade company debt.
“We think that there will be a sufficient relaxation of restrictions that will allow activity to pick up in the third quarter,” said Marki whose firm manages $460 billion in mostly fixed income. “We do not expect a multiyear deflationary era; rather, we expect deflation to be seen just over the course of the next year.”
Ten-year breakeven rates, a proxy for the market’s average inflation expectations into 2030, have stabilized after slumping in March to the lowest since early 2009, following a brief spell below zero. They’re now around 1.1%, up from as low as 0.47% last month.
The Fed targets 2% inflation and its favored gauge has missed the mark for much of the last eight years. Data this week are expected to show the measure slipped to 1.3% in March, the lowest since November.
The deflation debate is crucial for investors. The experience of Japan shows policy makers may struggle to reverse the phenomenon of dropping prices should it occur in the U.S. That dynamic could reignite the rush into Treasuries and drive yields below zero, said Ed Moya at Oanda Corp.
“Crippling demand is going to persist over the next year despite everything done to stabilize the economy,” said Moya, a senior market analyst.
When the Fed slashed rates to near zero at an emergency meeting March 15, policy makers pointed to below-target inflation and the need to lift prices as one reason for the move.
This month, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said policy makers “have the tools to keep the economy out of deflation.” Days later, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said it’s hard to get a good read on inflation at the moment, but there’s some risk of deflation.
Craig Pernick, head of fixed income for Chevy Chase Trust, sees no way for consumer spending to rebound over the next one or two years, leaving him “solidly” in the deflationary camp for now. On the other hand, Bill Merz, whose team oversees $180 billion at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, expects negative inflation readings to be short-lived.
“We aren’t designing portfolios with the expectation of deflation,” Merz said. “However, longer-term high quality bonds, particularly long-term Treasuries, provide a solid deflation hedge.”
By Vivien Lou Chen - Bloomberg, part of fiat currency mentality
submitted by SesshamoNekodearuzo to what_couldve_been_if

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